We have UK Industrial Production coming out. It is expected to read 0.4. Last month it read 0.3.

I recommend trading GBP/USD for this report.

Please read what this indicator means and how it affects the GBP/USD

UK Industrial Production comes out once per month at 4:30 am New York Time.

It measures whether industrial section in the UK did better or worse over previous month. Industrial sector includes factories, mines, and energy providers. If the number is negative, it means that industrial production contracted versus previous month. If the number is positive, it means that industrial production expanded versus previous month.

Industrial production in the UK constitutes approximately 25% of the entire GDP. When the numbers are higher, it means that the economy is doing better, when the numbers are lower, it means that the economy is doing worse.

When UK economy is doing better, it means that they are more likely to increase UK interest rate. When interest rate of a country is higher, it attracts investors to buy its currency, which increases the value of the currency versus other currencies.

So, when Industrial Production comes out better than expected, traders tend to speculatively buy Great British Pounds, so GBP/USD tends to go up. When industrial production comes out worse than expected, traders tend to speculatively sell Great British Pounds, so GBP/USD tends to go down.

To read more about UK Industrial Production, visit the official website that releases it. The link is Home: UK National Statistics Publication Hub

I highly recommend you see the history of this indicator and charts of how it affected GBP/USD and other currencies

The trigger for this indicator is 2.0. This means that if UK Industrial Production comes out at 2.4 or more, GBP/USD will probably go up by 30 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report. If it comes out at -1.6 or more negative, GBP/USD will probably go down by 30 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report. The reason why I recommend such big trigger is because this is very unreliable report to trade but if such bigger trigger is hit, chances are it will work. Most likely it will be a no trade, however.

We will also have UK Manufacturing Production, both m/m and y/y coming out and UK Industrial Production y/y. If they conflict, I recommend skipping the trade, but most likely they won't conflict.

Obviously, the bigger the difference between expected and actual numbers, the bigger will be the move.

To read the after-spike retracement strategy for this report

When trading UK Industrial Production, I recommend that you open and close your trades within the first 45 minutes of the report, because after 45 minutes, there will be other non-related market forces that will be affecting the currency pair.

With UK Industrial Production, there are generally two waves that you could ride and make money with.

The first wave is when the currency starts going up or down right after the release of the number.

The second wave is when the currency reaches its initial top or bottom price, then retraces, and makes another run for the high or low price.

Please look at this Industrial Production GBP/USD chart: Forex news trading currency exchange charts

you can see, the Industrial Production came out higher than expected, GBP/USD moved up by 40 pips, then retraced to the pre-release price, and went up again by another 30 pips. All of this happened within the first 30 minutes of the report.

For UK Industrial Production, I usually recommend entering at around 50% retracement. For the GBP/USD to retrace 100% as it happened in the chart shown above is rather rare.

Please look at the history of Industrial Production and the charts of how it affected GBP/USD and other currencies. This way, you'll see for yourself what I am talking about.
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Traders are expecting a slow news day, and as such may experience thin trading conditions and low liquidity. The few reports expected shouldn't cause too much of a stir, but with thin trading it may result in some decent price action. The EUR's uptick on Monday has many concerned that the 16-nation currency is now due for a downward correction, especially given the rapidly declining sentiment in the Euro-Zone caused by decisions made in Greece and Portugal concerning national debt and government spending, respectively.

USD - USD Leveling-Out against Majors
The US Dollar has steadily risen over the past few days, with other regions experiencing continual weakness from economic woes. Yesterday's price movements gave little indication of direction for the greenback, however, as the price seemed to enter a consolidation trend against the majority of its primary currency rivals.

Against the EUR, the Dollar gained only moderately from 1.3677 to 1.3620, and similar results against the Pound, finishing the day near 1.5600. As of this morning, on the other hand, the USD appears to be in a mild decline as part of the consolidation taking place since last Friday. Analysts are beginning to anticipate a dramatic price movement sometime early this week.

Today's news events may not create the spark necessary to push the USD out of its currently flat trend. The Investor's Business Daily's TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (IBD/TIPP) is publishing its monthly Economic Optimism report. While not traditionally carrying a heavy impact, it is the most significant release coming out of the United States today and could therefore have a greater impact. Should today's news be USD positive, the consolidation of the Dollar against its primary rivals could come to an end and the bullish movement of the greenback may likely continue.

EUR - EUR Bearish Despite Recent Uptick
The EUR seems to have sustained its bearish momentum despite yesterday's brief upward tick. With a stellar performance against the Australian and Canadian Dollars, the EUR actually finished Monday at the 1.5795 and 1.4680 price levels, respectively. Economists remain weary, however, given economic worries surrounding member nations of the European Monetary Union (EMU).

The reason many analysts claim that downward pressure still exists on the 16-nation European currency is because Greece's plan to tighten its spending has created some concern that the current plan doesn't do enough. Moreover, Portugal announced that it would increase its government's spending options, which has a number of market participants unnerved. A report out of Europe yesterday also showed the Sentix Investor Confidence report dropping much further than was anticipated, highlighting an upcoming downturn in the Euro-Zone.

Yesterday's upward movement of the EUR shouldn't be taken as a serious indicator of continued bullishness. With the US Dollar consolidating against most of its pairs, there exists a likelihood that the USD will break-out soon and the EUR will correct back downwards against the majority of its pairs. Many investors out there are beginning to short the 16-nation currency and forex traders would be wise to take note.

JPY - Yen Price Action Restrained by Conflicting Publications
The Japanese Yen's price action yesterday was among the flattest in the market. With little price movement against any currency pair, the JPY has apparently entered a narrow trading tunnel of no more than 50 pips between the highs and lows versus most currency rivals. The yen fluctuates near the 89.30 price mark against the USD, and sits steadily at 139.30 opposite the British Pound.

The likely culprit in this constricted movement are the contradictory reports of growing market sentiment and declines in money supplies published in reports on Sunday and Monday. With little news coming from the island economy today, and with a deficit in impacting news events from other regions, there is little reason to believe that the JPY will exit this tight trading range today. Traders can take advantage of these small fluctuations by entering short-term trades within the current range.

Crude Oil - Crude Oil Expected to Hit $76 a Barrel
The price of spot Crude Oil has apparently begun to mirror the consolidation movement of the US Dollar since Friday. The price of this commodity has begun to sit steadily near $71.50 and a number of analysts are calling for an upward price target near $76 in the short-run with longer-term expectations below $70 a barrel.

Crude Oil's recent price movement has been less predictable than many were forecasting coming into 2010. However, as the greenback's strength returns from increased market optimism and a halt to the rise in unemployment, there is a chance that crude oil's price will more accurately reflect what is happening in the market in general as opposed to the contradictory movements we've seen lately. If the US Dollar does indeed break out of its consolidation trend, then it is very probable that Oil's price will inversely reflect the movement of the greenback.

EUR/USD
The pair seems to be exhibiting some mixed signals. The hourly chart's Slow Stochastic exhibits a fresh bearish cross; however, the daily chart's Slow Stochastic is exhibiting a bullish cross while the RSI is floating in the oversold territory. Going long with tight stops may be a good choice for today.

GBP/USD
The pair's recent downward trend may be seeing a correction later today as the 8 hour and daily chart's RSI are floating in the oversold territory and a bearish cross is evident on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic, indicating an imminent upward correction. Going long for the day may be advised.

USD/JPY
The pair seems to be range trading at the moment, staying between 89.10 and 89.60, with most indicators floating in neutral territory. Waiting on a clearer direction for the pair may be advised for today.

USD/CHF
The 8 hour and daily charts' RSI are floating in the overbought territory while the daily chart's Slow Stochastic is exhibiting a bearish cross. Going short for the day may be advised.

USD/DKK
The daily chart's Slow Stochastic is exhibiting a bearish cross while the 8 hour and daily RSI are floating in the overbought territory indicating an imminent downward trend. Forex traders are advised to go short for the day.
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GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.5466 - 1.5714
Trend: Upward

Buy at 1.5590 SL 1.5550 TP 1.5637
Alternative : Sell at 1.5542 SL 1.5582 TP 1.5513


EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3564 - 1.3756
Trend: Upward
Buy at 1.3660 SL 1.3630 TP 1.3697
Alternative : Sell at 1.3623 SL 1.3653 TP 1.3601


USD/JPY
Trading range: 88.88 - 90.70
Trend: Downward
Sell at 89.14 SL 89.43 TP 89.04
Alternative : Buy at 89.29 SL 89.00 TP 89.45
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The dollar climbed to an eight month high versus the EUR on Friday after the release of the U.S. jobs report. Credit concerns in Europe are weighing on the market as traders have moved out of riskier currencies and into the safety of the dollar and yen.

USD - Unemployment Rate Improves

The greenback was significantly stronger across the board at the end of Friday's trading with the lone exception coming against the Japanese yen. Driving the dollar higher was a combination of a strong U.S. jobs report and European economic sovereign debt fears.

At the end of Friday's trading, the EUR/USD was trading at 1.3677 from an opening price of 1.3741. The pair shed 1.3% of its value from the previous week. The GBP/USD was also trading lower, trading at the price of 1.5639 after opening at 1.5733.

The release of the U.S. Non-Farm Jobs report by the department of labor helped to continue the bullishness of the dollar's most recent rally. Despite the loss of 20K jobs for the previous month after expectations of an increase of 10K, the unemployment rate dropped to 9.7%. This shows U.S. employment conditions are improving from their low point in the recession. An expectation for the next month may be positive job growth.

The jobs report capped off a strong week for the dollar. This trend may continue for the upcoming trading week as traders will be looking for further positive economic data to verify the trend of an improving U.S. economy. Traders should be eyeing both Wednesday's U.S. Trade Balance and Thursday's Core Retail Sales numbers for confirmation.

EUR - Sovereign Debt Fears Sinks the EUR

The EUR fell sharply as concerns over European sovereign debt pressured the currency. Economists focused on the budget deficits for the nations of Greece, Portugal, and Spain. Investors sold off riskier assets in general with the EUR being hit particularly hard. The EUR/USD fell at one point to a 12-month low.

Some investors are anticipating a potential default on sovereign debt payments, or a possible bailout by the European Central Bank (ECB). The President of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet, said no new steps would be taken at this time by the bank to aid the struggling nations. A last resort could be rescue loans by the International Monetary Fund. However, this could bring with it tough economic requirements as conditions of acceptance, creating uncomfortable social ills for the accepting nations.

An expectation of a potential bailout of the struggling nations has eliminated much of the demand for the EUR. This could also eliminate any potential economic growth the Euro-Zone economy was expected to produce this year. This could further hurt the EUR against the dollar as the U.S. may begin raising interest rates well before the ECB begins tightening monetary policy, creating an interest rate differential that traders may exploit.

JPY - Sovereign Debt Fears Boost the Yen

The yen was the lone major currency to appreciate against the dollar during Friday's trading. The yen was boosted this past week due to the sovereign debt issues in the Euro-Zone. The flight from risky assets was a positive for the yen as risk aversion took center stage. As risk sentiment tumbles, the yen benefits.

The USD/JPY was trading lower against the dollar at 89.24 after opening Friday's trading at 90.89. The EUR/JPY was also lower at 122.06 from 122.93. The currency fell 2.4% this week on European sovereign debt concerns.

Fundamentally, the fiscal concerns that shook the markets this past week should carry over into this week's trading of the yen, driving the EUR/JPY lower. Technically, the EUR/JPY sits very close to its next major support level at 120.00. We could see the pair's bearish run stall at this price level.

Oil - Spot Crude Oil Prices Plummet

The price of spot crude oil plunged this week after the dollar climbed to an 8-month high on European sovereign debt concerns and a better than expected U.S. jobs report. Fiscal problems in the nations of Greece, Portugal, and Spain threaten to disrupt the recovery of the European economy and affect the future demand for crude oil.

Despite the U.S. jobs report that showed a drop in the unemployment rate to 9.7%, crude oil prices found little support.

Spot crude oil prices finished Friday's trading at $71.79 after opening the day at $73.71. Prices were down 1.3% for the week.

Traders this week will be focused on the developments in Europe surrounding the potential for a bailout of the struggling nations. The commodity markets need somewhat of a fundamental boost in order to find some support that has been lacking in the previous week.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD cross has experienced a bearish trend for the past 3 weeks. However, it seems that this trend may be coming to an end. The RSI of the daily chart shows the pair floating in the over-sold territory, indicating that an upward correction will happen anytime soon. Going long with tight stops might be a wise choice.

GBP/USD

The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the daily chart's RSI indicating an upward correction may be imminent. The upward direction on the 4-hour chart's Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. When the upward breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

USD/JPY

The hourly chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the 4-hour Chart's RSI is already floating in the oversold territory indicating that a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. Going long might be a wise choice.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF cross has been experiencing much bullish behavior in the past 3 weeks. However, there is much technical data that supports a bearish move for today. The RSI of the daily and 4-hour charts indicates that the pair floats in the overbought territory, leading to the conclusion that a downward correction is imminent. Going short with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices are once again dropping, and it is currently traded around $71.40 per barrel. And now, the 4-hour chart's RSI is giving bullish signals, indicating that crude oil prices might go up. This might give forex traders a great opportunity to enter a very popular trend.

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GBP/USD
Trading range: 1.5434 - 1.5870
Trend: Upward

Buy at 1.5662 SL 1.5612 TP 1.5735
Alternative : Sell at 1.5568 SL 1.5518 TP 1.5517


EUR/USD
Trading range: 1.3497 - 1.3827
Trend: Upward
Buy at 1.3667 SL 1.3637 TP 1.3725
Alternative : Sell at 1.3599 SL 1.3629 TP 1.3560


USD/JPY
Trading range: 88.28 - 90.38
Trend: Downward
Sell at 89.33 SL 89.63 TP 88.93
Alternative : Buy at 89.73 SL 89.43 TP 89.98
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Following an intense trading session, on which gold dropped below $1,060 an ounce, crude oil declined to $72.40 a barrel and the EUR/USD fell to the 1.3670 level, another exciting trading day is expected before the weekend begins. The U.S Non-Farm Payrolls is scheduled today at 13:30 GMT, and as always promises to create extraordinary volatility in the market.

USD - Dollar Reaches 9-Month High against the Euro
The Dollar rallied against the Euro yesterday, gaining over 200 pips. The EUR/USD pair reached a 9-month low as a result, dropping to the 1.3670 level. The Dollar also gained about 200 pips vs. the Pound today, marking an extremely bullish session.

The Dollar's bullish trend continued yesterday. It appears that the risk-aversion is currently dominating the market, as the Dollar seems to surge regardless of the data published from the U.S. economy. Over the last two weeks the Dollar rose due to an improving housing sector, a halt in unemployment growth and rising inflation. However today, the Dollar rallied following a batch of disappointing data, including worse than expected employment figures. The weekly Unemployment Claims rose by 8,000 during the past week to 480,000 people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Currently the Dollar's bullish momentum seems be quite solid, and somewhat immune to negative data.

Nevertheless, today's trading session can put a stop to the bullish trend or significantly extend it. Today is the first Friday of the month, and as such the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change report is expected. Analysts forecast that today's publication will provide the first positive figures since January of 2008. This will be yet another strong indication that the U.S. economy is recovering at a faster pace than expected. This has potential to boost the Dollar once again today against the major currencies, especially the Euro and the Pound. However, an unexpected negative end result could initiate a reversal in the market, and forex traders should be prepared for harsh volatility today.

EUR - Euro Tumbles as Interest Rates Remain at 1.00%
During yesterday's trading session, the Euro dropped against all the major currencies. The Euro is currently traded at a 9-month low against the Dollar, as the EUR/USD pair dropped over 200 pips, reaching the 1.3670 level.

The Euro's decline was initiated today when the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that the Minimum Bid Rates, which are the European Interest Rates for February, will be left at record low of 1.00%. The Euro dropped sharply as a result, expressing investors' desire to see an interest rates hike in the Euro-Zone. In addition, following Greece's deficit concerns, the ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said today the many Euro-Zone countries will have large, sharply fiscal imbalances. There are currently concrete worries that the Euro-Zone's leading economies will be damaged as a result of the difficulties of the smaller economies, turning investors to look for safer currencies such as the Dollar and the Yen.

Looking ahead to today, the most interesting data from the Euro-Zone looks to be the German Industrial Production figures for December. Analysts forecast that the Industrial Production, which measures the value of output produced by manufacturers, rose by 0.6% on December. If the actual result will be similar, it is likely to support the Euro.

JPY - EUR/JPY Drops to an 11-Month Low
The Yen soared against all the major currencies during yesterday's trading session. The Yen gained over 200 pips against the Dollar today and over 400 pips against the Euro, sending the EUR/JPY pair to an 11-month low.

The Yen's remarkable bullish session came predominantly as a result of fears regarding the Euro-Zone's worsening fiscal problems. The European Central Bank announced today that several countries might have fiscal imbalances this year, turning investors to search for safer assets. In addition, the Yen also strengthened against the Dollar, following disappointing U.S. employment data which were published yesterday. It now seems that as long as the current risk aversion inclination will continue to dominate the market, the Yen will continue to strengthen.

As for today, there is no significant news publications expected from the Japanese economy. Therefore traders are advised to follow the main data from the U.S. economy. Special attention should be given to the Non-Farm payrolls report that is likely to have the strongest impact on the market today.

OIL - Crude Oil Drops to $72.40 a Barrel
Crude oil dropped close to 5% of its value today. Crude oil dropped from $77 a barrel to $72.40. This has marked the biggest single-day drop in more than six months.

Crude oil dropped yesterday, as debts concerns in Europe along with the unexpected drop of U.S. weekly employment claims may hurt the long-term demand for energy. Crude oil prices rose during most of the week on optimism regarding the global economic recovery. However, recent notifications that several European countries suffer from excessive deficits have ended the optimism. In addition, the Dollar's bullish trend also weakened oil. Crude oil is valued in Dollars, and when the Dollar sees a sharp rise, crude oil tends to drop as a result.

Looking ahead to today, traders are advised to follow closely the major publications from the U.S. economy as they are likely to impact oil the most. Today's most significant data will be the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, and this publication is likely to have an immediate affect on crude oil.
Technical News

EUR/USD
The weekly chart shows a strong bearish trend with no signs of slowing. Both the 7-day and 14-day Relative Strength indicator are trading sharply below the 30 level and have not yet made a move to rise. The price has broken its 50% retracement level from the previous bullish trend at a price of 1.3746 and now could fall to the 68% retracement level to 1.3296.

GBP/USD
The daily chart displays a downward sloping MACD histogram, indicating the momentum of the pair is moving lower. The sharp downward trend has arrived at the significant support level of 1.5715. The previous bearish move ended at this price level. If the pair is able to breach this support line, we could see the price move lower to the next significant support level of 1.5350.

USD/JPY
The weekly chart shows a significant bearish trend that may have room to extend. The MACD shows a potential bearish cross forming with a downward sloping histogram, hinting at a further lower price move. The price move began at the upper border on the Bollinger Band and has since crossed the 20-day moving average line. This shows the potential for further price declines, perhaps to the lower Bollinger Band at a level of 87.30.

USD/CHF
The strong bullish trend shown on the 4-hour chart may now be overbought and those who were long may want to trip their exposure. The 4-hour shows a bearish cross has formed on the Slow Stochastic Oscillator, indicating the potential for price move lower. The Momentum Oscillator has reached the upper boundary and has begun to turn lower, supporting the potential lower price move. The Relative Strength Index has moved into the overbought region but has yet to break the rising trend line or the upper boundary. Traders may want to wait for the break of the 70 line to close their long positions or go short on the pair.

Silver
Silver has experienced a significant downward price move that has now broken a long term trend line that began in November 2008. The price breach also passed the significant support level of 16.22. Forex and commodity traders who are short on silver may want to set their next price target at the new support level of 16.40.
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